LANSING—National Democrats have targeted two GOP-held congressional seats in Michigan, promising extra financial help to defeat the incumbents in November.

In Oakland County, former state Sen. Gary Peters of Bloomfield is the likely Democratic challenger to U.S. Rep. Joe Knollenberg, R-Bloomfield Hills. Knollenberg, now in his eighth term, won reelection in 2006 with only 52 percent of the vote.

A potential complication in that contest is the independent candidacy of assisted suicide advocate Jack Kevorkian, the former pathologist who served eight years in prison for murder stemming from an assisted suicide.

Meanwhile in a district that includes parts of south-central Michigan, state Senate Democratic Leader Mark Schauer of Battle Creek hopes to oust first-term U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton. Walberg received slightly fewer than half the votes in November 2006 after a bruising GOP primary.

Congressional Quarterly Politics rates both races as “leans Republican.”

Republicans hold nine of the state’s 15 U.S. House seats.

Nationwide, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting 13 Republican seats, including one in neighboring Ohio, as part of its “Red to Blue” effort to increase the Democratic majority in the House.

The committee said its drive “highlights top Democratic campaigns across the country, and offers them financial, communications, and strategic support. The program will introduce Democratic supporters to new, competitive candidates in order to help expand the fundraising base for these campaigns.”

A similar effort in 2004 brought in almost $7.5 million for 27 favored Democratic campaigns, an average of more than $250,000 per campaign. In 2006 when Democrats recaptured Congress, it raised about $22.6 million for 56 campaigns, roughly $404,000 per campaign, the committee said.

David Dulio, an Oakland University political scientist, said Peters is likely to do well in the Oakland County district this year, despite its traditional Republican orientation.

“He’s a strong challenger, he’ll be well-funded and will be helped by the party,” Dulio said.

“What makes Knollenberg a little bit vulnerable is the large population in Pontiac. That is ripe ground for the picking for Democratic votes,” he said “A few other areas that may be swing areas could trend Democratic, but what could keep him in his seat is turning out voters in traditional Republican areas like Bloomfield Hills, Birmingham and West Bloomfield “

In Michigan’s other high-profile contest, Walberg shares the vulnerability of all first-term House members, according to Jon Williams, a political scientist at Kellogg Community College.

It takes time to build an “ivory tower of incumbency” with widespread name recognition and campaign funds, so “if you’re going to pick somebody off, your best shot is the first term,” said Williams, a past chair of the Jackson County GOP.

He noted that Schauer is well known in the third of the congressional district that overlaps his state Senate district and is likely to run well in industrialized areas, adding that the real question is how much support he finds in rural areas.

As for campaign spending, Williams said, “The beginning point for challengers is $500,000 – that’s the entry point. The average House campaign costs $1 million nationally, so $400,000” – about what favored challengers received in 2006 from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – “is a good starting point.”

As of Dec. 31, 2007, Walberg had raised $562,318 and Schauer $577,133, Federal Elections Commission records show. In the Oakland County district, Knollenberg had raised $1,439,027 and Peters $400,566.

Bill Nowling, the communications director for the state Republican party, said, “Those are going to be the hottest congressional races in Michigan.”

But Nowling said a northern Michigan contest has the potential to draw attention and funding from the National Republican Congressional Committee, depending on poll results and fund-raising activities between now and the fall.

U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Menominee, won the seat in 1992 in a sprawling district that covers the Upper Peninsula and the northeastern part of the Lower Peninsula.

Term-limited state Rep. Tom Casperson, R-Escanaba, formally announced his candidacy March 17 but has been a visible candidate against Stupak since last summer.

“Americans are tired -- of too much government and too little common sense, of too much tax and too little fiscal restraint, of too many threats to our national security and too little security for our children, and of too many unreasonable regulations and too few
jobs,” Casperson said in his official announcement.

Meanwhile, Democrats paint Casperson as a legislator who has voted against the best interests of his district on such issues as closing prisons in the U.P. and cutting the Northern Michigan University budget.

Liz Kerr, the communications director for the state Democratic party, said that unless Casperson “has at least half a million in the bank, which he doesn’t,” his challenge to “a non-vulnerable incumbent” is doomed. As for Stupak’s campaign war chest, “He can raise money as fast as he needs to.”

Experts don’t consider Michigan’s other 12 incumbents at serious risk of defeat this year.

May 13 is the deadline for candidates to file for the Aug. 5 Democratic and Republican primaries.

Oakland University’s Dulio added that turnout decides every campaign, and presidential years bring out the most voters. Given the prospective presidential nominees, “Republicans could have a hard time turning out their voters. Democrats probably won’t because of the excitement on that side.”