LANSING – The battle to take control of the Michigan House of Representatives has heated up, with both sides claiming to have the momentum on their side.

The Democrats currently hold the majority, 58–52.

Bill Ballenger, a former state legislator and editor of the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics, said the baseline strength of the Democratic Party should allow it to hold its 2006 gains, which gave it the majority for the first time since 1996.

Strength of a party, according to Ballenger, is measured by its ability to win races even where there is almost no candidate recognition, meaning the voter votes solely based on party affiliation.

Ballenger estimated Democratic support in Michigan at about 54 percent, the highest in several years.

But Bill Nowling, communications officer for the Michigan GOP, sounded more optimistic about Republicans’ prospects. He said the party’s chances for taking back the lower chamber this November are “about 50–50.”

Nowling specifically pointed to a few seats that the Republicans lost in 2006 that they want to regain in November. For example, the GOP has its sights on Rep. Mark Corriveau’s district, which covers Plymouth and some of Northville, and Rep. Mike Simpson’s seat in Jackson.

He also said Rep. Terry Brown’s seat in the Thumb, which Republicans lost in 2006, could also be in play.

The said the state’s lagging economy and voters’ penchant for punishing the party in power in dire times make the atmosphere ripe for a Republican takeover of the House, Nowling said.

House Democrats disagree. House Majority Floor Leader Steve Tobocman, D–Detroit, said he is “very excited about this race.”

Tobocman said the Democrats have outpaced the Republicans in both fundraising and recruiting for the fall campaign.

This is the first time, he said, the Democrats have more money to spend on House races than the Republicans.

He also pointed to several seats that Democrats could snatch away. For example, he said the seat in West Bloomfield and Commerce Township held by David Law is ripe for picking.

Law narrowly defeated his Democratic opponent in 2006 and is running for Oakland County prosecutor instead of a third House term.

Tobocman said the chances are good that Democrats will pick up open seats – currently held by Republicans – in Battle Creek, where Rep. Mike Nofs is term–limited, and in Grosse Pointe, an area that Tobocman says is becoming increasingly Democratic, where Rep. Ed Gaffney is also retiring.

Beyond taking over the House, both Nowling and House Minority Leader Craig DeRoche, R–Novi, said the prospects are good that a Republican presidential candidate will win Michigan for the first time since 1988.

Ballenger agrees. “McCain could win Michigan, which should be a plus for Michigan Republicans.”

Nowling says the conventional wisdom from a few months ago that Sen. Hillary Clinton had locked up the Democratic nomination and was going to lead her party to victory has changed.

Nowling said the battle between Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama has put the Democrats in “upheaval” – much to the delight of Republicans.

National issues that seem to be hurting Republicans on the national stage – the Iraq War and general public disdain of the Bush administration – are not likely to sway voters much in Michigan, Nowling said.

“The economy is hurting any incumbent,” he said. “It is the single issue that matters.”

Due to term limits, there are 44 open seats in the House. Republicans currently hold 26 of them, Democrats 18.

The GOP holds the majority of open seats that could be considered in play – seats that could go either way.

“Republicans have a lot to lose and little to gain,” said Ballenger. “The odds favor the Democrats picking up more seats and having a bigger majority in the fall.”

There are no state Senate elections this year.